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So the reaffirmation of “the best available science” is one of the key ways for negotiators to focus attention on the tougher 1.5C goal, rather than the upper “well below” 2C limit, without being accused of trying to reopen the Paris agreement. The world is currently at about 1.1C of heating and the increase in extreme weather around the world is already apparent. That report found serious damages from 1.5C of heating, including the inundation of some low-lying areas by sea level rises and storm surges an increase in extreme weather such as heatwaves, droughts, floods and intensifying storms an accelerated melting of ice that could rapidly become irreversible and the die-off of coral reefs. In October 2018, at the behest of the 2015 Paris climate summit, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the global authority on climate science – produced a special report on what 1.5C would mean.
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The Paris agreement contains two key goals: to limit global temperature rises to “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels, and to “pursue efforts” to limit heating to 1.5C. And the best available science has changed notably since 1992, and since 2015. The best available science is at the core of the 1992 UN framework convention on climate change and of the 2015 Paris agreement. This is the very first paragraph after the preamble, and it’s easy to overlook but it really is very important. The first draft began with just “science” but the second draft has added “and urgency” – that’s a strengthening that might easily go unnoticed. Recognizes the importance of the best available science for effective climate action and policymaking